Seasonal Climate – October 2022 to February 2023

NORTH WEST – The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a La Niña state and forecasts indicate that it will likely remain in this state during the remainder of 2022 and early 2023. The presence of a La Niña event usually has its strongest impact on rainfall during the mid-summer months for South Africa.

Therefore, its evaluation into the start of the summer months is important to take note of the multi-model rainfall forecast indicates above-normal rainfall for most parts of the country for all predicted seasons. Minimum temperatures are still expected to be above normal countrywide, however, maximum temperatures are expected to be below normal over large parts of the country during early- (Nov-Dec-Jan) and mid-summer (Dec-Jan-Feb).

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) will continue to monitor the weather and climatic conditions and provide updates on any future assessments that may provide more clarity on the current expectations for the coming season. – SAWS